KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-08-09 00:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [2][3]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance exceeded expectations, showcasing operational resilience. The planned cash dividend payout for 2024-2026 is set to be no less than 75%, which is above market expectations. The company has also actively managed inventory to support price recovery for its flagship product since July [2][3]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 83.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.9%. In Q2 2024, total revenue reached 36.966 billion yuan, a 17.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 17.630 billion yuan, up 16.1% [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends twice a year for the next three years, reflecting its commitment as a market leader. The price of its flagship product has been steadily increasing, with the retail price surpassing 2400 yuan [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 173.562 billion yuan, with a net profit of 85.936 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 68.41 yuan, with a projected growth rate of 15.3% [28]. - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to reach 37.6% in 2024, indicating strong profitability [28]. - The current price of the stock is 1,430.69 yuan, with a target price set at 2,240.12 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 33 times for 2024 [3][28].