SCIE(SH:600546) GF SECURITIES·2024-08-09 04:01Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 12.90 CNY and a fair value of 16.18 CNY [1][3]. Core Views - The company has a stable credit rating of AAA from China Chengxin International, with a stable outlook. The rating is valid from July 29, 2024, to July 29, 2025 [2]. - The company forecasts a Q2 net profit of 0.67-0.87 billion CNY, a year-on-year decline of 35.7%-50.4%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.9%-49.2% [2]. - The company expects to produce 38.98 million tons of coal in 2023 and plans to maintain production of no less than 33 million tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in coal production, with net profit per ton exceeding 200 CNY for its main mines [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company anticipates a decline in net profit for the first half of 2023, with expected figures between 1.25-1.45 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 52.6%-59.1% [2]. - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 32.10 billion CNY, down 14.1% from 2023, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [3][12]. - The company’s EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.62, 1.76, and 1.85 CNY per share, respectively [3][8]. Dividend Policy - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio, achieving 63% and 64% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with a planned increase to over 60% from 2024 to 2026 [3][8]. Market Position - The company benefits from a relatively new coal mining infrastructure and a light personnel burden, positioning it favorably within the Shanxi coal industry [3][8]. - The company’s major shareholder, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, provides significant resource advantages [3][8].