Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 9.56, representing a potential upside of 53.4% from the current price of HKD 6.23 [1][3][24]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in China's biopharmaceutical industry, with robust growth in core products such as recombinant human thrombopoietin Tevaz (特比澳) and the OTC hair loss treatment product Mandi (蔓迪) [1][14]. - Tevaz is expected to maintain steady revenue growth due to expanded insurance reimbursement coverage and ongoing indication expansions, with a 23.8% year-on-year sales increase in 2023 [1][15]. - The hair loss treatment market is significant, with Mandi capturing a 72.6% market share in the minoxidil market, and the company is expanding its product matrix to include various hair loss treatment options [1][14][29]. - The innovation pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with multiple blockbuster products expected to be approved between 2025 and 2027, including long-acting EPO SSS06 and various monoclonal antibodies [1][20][24]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 7.816 billion in FY23, reflecting a 13.8% year-on-year growth, with projections for continued growth in the coming years [2][14]. - The net profit for FY23 was RMB 1.586 billion, a decrease of 16.9% year-on-year, primarily due to specific financial impacts, but adjusted operating net profit showed a 17.7% increase [2][17]. - The company expects a revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% and a net profit CAGR of 13.4% from 2023 to 2026 [1][24]. Market Position - Tevaz holds a dominant position in the Chinese thrombocytopenia treatment market, with a 65.0% market share, and is expanding its indications to include treatment for chronic liver disease-related thrombocytopenia [1][15][30]. - Mandi leads the OTC hair loss treatment market, with a strong brand recognition and a significant growth trajectory, supported by a diverse sales strategy across online and offline channels [1][14][29]. Innovation Pipeline - The company has a rich pipeline focusing on various therapeutic areas, with 29 products in development, including 15 in late-stage clinical trials [20][23]. - Key products in the pipeline include Tevaz for new indications, long-acting EPO SSS06, and several monoclonal antibodies targeting autoimmune diseases [20][21][23].
三生制药：核心品种增长稳健，创新产品迎来收获；首予买入