国联证券：国联并购民生，发展再上台阶

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The acquisition of Minsheng Securities by Guolian Securities is expected to enhance the company's development and market position, with a transaction price of 29.492 billion yuan for 99.26% of Minsheng Securities [1]. - The valuation of Minsheng Securities at 29.711 billion yuan corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.87, which is considered reasonable given the current market conditions [1]. - The merger is anticipated to expand the capital scale and business opportunities, potentially placing the combined entity among the top 15 in the industry with a net asset of 47.3 billion yuan [1]. - The report highlights the complementary strengths of both companies, with Guolian Securities excelling in wealth management and derivatives, while Minsheng Securities focuses on investment banking and fixed income [1]. - The management team is viewed positively, with expectations of continued growth in net profit for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, projected at 7.79 billion, 9.27 billion, and 11.14 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 19%, and 20% [1][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue for 2023 is projected to be 29.55 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is estimated at 7.79 billion yuan, representing a 16% increase compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The report provides a detailed financial forecast, indicating a steady increase in revenue and profit margins over the next three years [8][10].