Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of HKD 9.56, which corresponds to an 11x P/E ratio for 2024 [4][25]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in China's biopharmaceutical industry, with core products such as recombinant human thrombopoietin Tevaz (特比澳) and the OTC hair loss treatment product Mandi (蔓迪). The growth of Tevaz is expected to be steady due to expanded indications and increased penetration in the oncology field [1][15]. - The hair loss and acne treatment markets present significant demand, with Mandi and the investigational acne treatment expected to continue driving growth for the company [2][15]. - The company's innovative pipeline is approaching a harvest period, with multiple blockbuster products expected to be approved between 2025 and 2027 [2][21]. Financial Overview - The company achieved revenue of RMB 7.816 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.8%. The revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2023 was 10.1% [3][15]. - The net profit for 2023 was RMB 1.586 billion, showing a decline of 16.9% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of zero-coupon convertible bonds and changes in fair value of financial assets [3][18]. - The company maintains a robust gross margin above 80%, reaching 85% in 2023, while the adjusted net profit margin was 25% [17][18]. Product and Market Analysis - Tevaz has a dominant position in the Chinese thrombocytopenia treatment market, with a market share of 65% in 2023. The sales revenue for Tevaz grew by 23.8% year-on-year to RMB 4.2 billion [1][16]. - Mandi leads the domestic minoxidil market with a 72.6% market share, achieving sales revenue of RMB 1.12 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.8% [2][15][29]. - The company has a diverse product matrix around the Mandi brand, including various formulations and delivery systems, which are expected to enhance brand value and market penetration [30]. Research and Development Pipeline - The company has a rich R&D pipeline with 29 products under development, of which 15 are in late-stage clinical trials. Key upcoming products include long-acting EPO SSS06 and several monoclonal antibodies targeting various conditions [21][22][24]. - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the hematology/oncology, nephrology, and dermatology sectors, with several products expected to be launched in the coming years [21][22][23]. Market Potential - The hair loss treatment market in China is substantial, with over 250 million individuals affected. The market for hair loss treatment and care products is projected to grow from RMB 106.9 billion in 2021 to RMB 203.5 billion by 2030, with a CAGR exceeding 7% [27][30]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for hair loss treatments, particularly with the increasing acceptance of minoxidil products among consumers [2][27].
三生制药：核心品种增长稳健，创新产品迎来收获，首予买入