贵州茅台24H1半年报点评报告：茅台业绩再超预期，分红兑现发展红利

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" [19] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's performance exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 83.451 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year [16] - The company has a robust cash flow performance, with operating cash flow reaching 36.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.52% [9] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2024-2026, enhancing the certainty of dividend returns [17] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, Moutai liquor revenue was 68.567 billion yuan (up 15.67% year-on-year), while series liquor revenue was 13.147 billion yuan (up 30.51% year-on-year) [16] - The gross margin for H1 2024 was 91.76%, and the net margin was 52.70% [9] - The company’s revenue growth targets for 2024-2026 are projected at 16.09%, 15.24%, and 14.81%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 17.29%, 16.11%, and 15.33% [18] Market and Product Insights - The company has seen a shift in sales channels, with direct sales revenue in H1 2024 reaching 33.728 billion yuan (up 7.35% year-on-year), while wholesale revenue was 47.986 billion yuan (up 26.50% year-on-year) [16] - The average price of Moutai liquor has stabilized around 2,440 yuan, with expectations for stability in the near term [17] - The company’s international revenue reached 2.204 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 76.69% of China's total liquor exports [16]