KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guohai Securities·2024-08-09 12:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][16]. Core Views - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to no less than 75% of the annual net profit from 2024 to 2026, enhancing shareholder returns and setting a benchmark in the liquor industry [4][6]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 83.45 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit of 41.70 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year [16][17]. - The company is expected to see continuous improvement in volume, price, and product structure, with strong certainty in high-quality earnings growth [6][17]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1744.55 billion yuan, 2001.20 billion yuan, and 2257.06 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 871.10 billion yuan, 1006.43 billion yuan, and 1141.70 billion yuan [6][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 69.34 yuan, 80.12 yuan, and 90.89 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [6][7]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 16% for 2024, 15% for 2025, and 13% for 2026, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 17%, 16%, and 13% for the same years [7][8]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is continuously upgrading, with the revenue share of series liquor reaching a historical high of 16.09% in H1 2024, compared to 14.01% for the entire year of 2023 [17]. - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 36.97 billion yuan from series liquor, a significant increase of 42.52% year-on-year [17]. - The direct sales channel revenue in Q2 2024 was 14.41 billion yuan, up 5.85% year-on-year, while the wholesale channel revenue was 21.66 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 27.40% [17].