新凤鸣：涤纶长丝主业景气度有望上行，龙头强化一体化布局

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2]. Core Views - The polyester filament industry is expected to see an upward trend in demand and profitability, with the company positioned as a leading player in the market [3][4]. - The company is enhancing its integrated layout by expanding its PTA production capacity and entering overseas refining projects, which will strengthen its supply chain [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Polyester is a significant chemical fiber, with polyester filament accounting for over 80% of China's total polyester production and approximately 66% of the country's chemical fiber output [3][9]. - The main types of polyester filament include Pre-Oriented Yarn (POY), Draw Textured Yarn (DTY), and Fully Drawn Yarn (FDY), each serving different applications in textiles [10][11]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape for polyester filament is expected to improve, with a projected decrease in new production capacity growth in 2024 and 2025 [3][16]. - Domestic consumption of polyester filament showed a robust increase, with a 32.1% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024 [20][22]. 3. Company Positioning - The company is a leading producer of polyester filament and short fibers in China, with a current production capacity of 7.4 million tons and a market share exceeding 12% [3][4]. - The company plans to add 400,000 tons of polyester filament capacity in 2024 and 650,000 tons in 2025, focusing on differentiated products [4][19]. 4. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 64.5 billion, 70.3 billion, and 74.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 1.82 billion, 2.30 billion, and 2.46 billion yuan [5][4]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 10.5, 8.3, and 7.8 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [4][5].