东方财富2024年中报点评：代销收入环比见底，大模型助力新一代金融终端

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][12]. Core Views - The company's total revenue and net profit for H1 2024 were CNY 4.945 billion and CNY 4.056 billion, respectively, representing a year-on-year decline of 14% and 4%, which aligns with expectations [3]. - Fund distribution revenue faced pressure, while seat commissions significantly decreased, likely due to public fund fee reforms impacting brokerage services. However, the increase in margin financing market share and substantial growth in proprietary investment income supported overall performance [3]. - The introduction of the "Miaoxiang" financial model in June 2024, in collaboration with Choice Data, is expected to enhance the company's smart financial terminal capabilities across seven major scenarios, indicating a positive outlook for AI empowerment [3]. - The company’s fundamentals and valuation are currently at low levels, with a focus on beta catalysts [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Fund distribution revenue in H1 2024 was CNY 1.41 billion, down 30% year-on-year, affected by a weak equity fund market and reduced management fees. However, Q2 showed resilience with a slight 1% increase in revenue [4]. - The company's brokerage net income for H1 2024 was CNY 2.0 billion, down 10% year-on-year, with a significant 78% drop in seat commission income due to policy changes [5]. - Proprietary investment income increased by 42% year-on-year to CNY 1.63 billion, with an annualized investment return rate of 4.01% [5]. - The company’s estimated net profit for 2024-2026 has been revised down to CNY 8.0 billion, CNY 8.4 billion, and CNY 9.4 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of CNY 0.50, CNY 0.53, and CNY 0.60 [3][5]. Valuation Metrics - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20.7, 19.6, and 17.5 for 2024-2026 [3]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately CNY 165.12 billion, with a circulating market value of CNY 139.74 billion [6].