贵州茅台：公司业绩增长稳健性依然较强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [17]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance aligns with expectations, with revenue of 83.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, and a net profit of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [17]. - The company has slowed down the delivery of its flagship product, Feitian Moutai, in Q2, which is consistent with prior expectations due to a decline in its price [17]. - The growth in revenue from series liquor has accelerated, with a significant increase compared to Q1 [17]. - The company has increased its regular dividend payout ratio to 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, up from 51.9% in previous years, enhancing the stock's attractiveness [17]. - The report forecasts steady growth in net profit for 2024-2026, with expected figures of 87.2 billion yuan, 101.1 billion yuan, and 115.9 billion yuan, respectively [17]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue (million yuan): - 2023A: 150,560.33 - 2024E: 174,087.27 - 2025E: 200,957.59 - 2026E: 229,831.96 - Revenue Growth Rate (%): - 2023A: 18.04 - 2024E: 15.63 - 2025E: 15.43 - 2026E: 14.37 [2] - Net Profit (million yuan): - 2023A: 74,734.07 - 2024E: 87,203.45 - 2025E: 101,080.17 - 2026E: 115,943.51 - Profit Growth Rate (%): - 2023A: 19.16 - 2024E: 16.68 - 2025E: 15.91 - 2026E: 14.70 [2] - Gross Margin (%): - 2023A: 91.96 - 2024E: 92.35 - 2025E: 92.37 - 2026E: 92.39 [2] - Diluted EPS (yuan): - 2023A: 59.49 - 2024E: 69.42 - 2025E: 80.47 - 2026E: 92.30 - PE Ratio: - 2023A: 24.05 - 2024E: 20.61 - 2025E: 17.78 - 2026E: 15.50 [2]