KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Guoyuan Securities·2024-08-11 01:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [2][11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 83.451 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, with a net profit of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year [11]. - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no less than 75% of the annual net profit for the years 2024 to 2026, with distributions occurring twice a year [11]. - The revenue from the wholesale channel grew rapidly, while the direct sales channel remained stable [11]. - The company experienced a slight decline in the production of base liquor for both its flagship and series products [11]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 150.56 billion yuan in 2023 to 223.87 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.71% [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 74.734 billion yuan in 2023 to 111.963 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 15.52% [6]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to remain strong, averaging around 33% over the next five years [6][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 24.15 in 2023 to 16.12 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [6][11]. Key Financial Ratios - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 92%, while the net profit margin is projected to slightly improve to 50.01% by 2026 [11][16]. - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to decline from 19.47% in 2022 to 13.63% in 2026, indicating improved financial stability [16]. - The current ratio is expected to increase from 4.41 in 2022 to 6.32 in 2026, reflecting strong liquidity [16].