贵州茅台2024年中报点评：Q2业绩增16%，规划分红率75%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [8] Core Views - In H1 2024, Guizhou Moutai achieved total revenue of 83.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends amounting to no less than 75% of the annual net profit for the years 2024-2026, with distributions occurring twice a year [2] - The growth in wholesale channel revenue was significant, while direct sales remained stable [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, total revenue reached 36.966 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.95%, with net profit at 17.630 billion yuan, up 16.10% year-on-year [2] - Revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor in H1 2024 was 68.567 billion yuan and 13.147 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 15.67% and 30.51% [2] - The company reported a stable gross margin of 91.91% in H1 2024, with a slight decline in net margin to 51.74% [2] Revenue Channels - In H1 2024, direct sales and wholesale channel revenues were 33.728 billion yuan and 47.986 billion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 7.35% and 26.50% respectively [2] - The number of domestic and international distributors remained stable at 2,097 and 106, with a net increase of 17 distributors since the beginning of the year [2] Production and Inventory - The production of base liquor for Moutai and series liquor in H1 2024 was 39,100 tons and 22,700 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.33% and 5.42% respectively [2] - Contract liabilities at the end of H1 2024 increased to 9.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 36.25% [2] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 86.334 billion yuan, 98.994 billion yuan, and 111.963 billion yuan, with growth rates of 15.52%, 14.66%, and 13.10% respectively [2][10]