贵州茅台：营收利润均略超预期，未来三年每年分红率不低于75%

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the benchmark index within the next six months [17][24]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 834.51 billion yuan and a net profit of 416.96 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 17.56% and 15.88% respectively. In Q2 alone, total revenue reached 369.66 billion yuan, with a net profit of 176.30 billion yuan, both showing strong year-on-year growth [3][4]. - The growth was primarily driven by a significant increase in series liquor sales, with series liquor revenue growing by 42.52% year-on-year in Q2, while the flagship Maotai liquor maintained a steady growth of 12.92% [3][4]. - The sales channel structure is undergoing adjustments, with a notable increase in revenue from distribution channels, which grew by 26.50% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while direct sales saw a decline in proportion [3][4]. - The company reported a gross margin of 91.91% and a net profit margin of 49.96% for the first half of 2024, with significant increases in cash flow and prepayments indicating strong future potential [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts annual revenues of 1737.84 billion yuan, 1951.08 billion yuan, and 2152.58 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.43%, 12.27%, and 10.33% [4][5]. - Net profits are projected to be 852.63 billion yuan, 961.28 billion yuan, and 1067.11 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 14.09%, 12.74%, and 11.01% [4][5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 67.87 yuan, 76.52 yuan, and 84.95 yuan, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21, 19, and 17 respectively [4][5].