GREAT RIVER SMARTER(002930) 浙商证券·2024-08-11 15:44Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Hongchuan Wisdom (002930) [4] Core Views - Hongchuan Wisdom is a leading petrochemical storage company in China, focusing on its core business of storage and logistics services for petrochemical products [1] - The company has achieved steady growth through continuous mergers and acquisitions, with total storage capacity reaching 5.0031 million cubic meters by the end of 2023 [1] - The petrochemical storage industry in China has high barriers to entry due to strict environmental regulations and limited high-quality coastal resources, leading to a trend of consolidation among leading players [2] - Hongchuan Wisdom's storage business revenue has been steadily increasing, with storage and transfer service revenue reaching 1.498 billion yuan in 2023, a 24% year-on-year increase [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 238 million yuan, 305 million yuan, and 418 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.1x, 17.3x, and 12.6x [3] Industry Analysis - China is a major producer and consumer of petrochemical products, with regional imbalances in production and consumption driving demand for petrochemical storage [1] - The petrochemical logistics market size in China was approximately 2.38 trillion yuan in 2023, a 1.1% year-on-year decrease, but still supported by growing production of ethylene glycol and other petrochemical products [1] - The proportion of waterway transportation in petrochemical logistics has been increasing, rising from 18% in 2018 to 22% in 2023, due to the advantages of coastal refinery locations and the unique benefits of waterway transport [1] - The petrochemical storage industry faces significant supply constraints due to strict environmental regulations and limited high-quality coastal resources, leading to a trend of consolidation among leading players [2] - Hongchuan Wisdom's storage capacity accounted for approximately 11.5% of the national total in 2023, with a significant lead in market share among private enterprises [2] Company Analysis - Hongchuan Wisdom's storage business is its main source of revenue, accounting for 88% of total revenue in 2023 [1] - The company's storage bases are mainly located in the East China and South China regions, with East China accounting for approximately 80% of revenue in 2023 [1] - The company's storage rental income is determined by storage capacity, occupancy rate, and rental prices, with the average rental price in 2023 being approximately 44.35 yuan per cubic meter per month [2] - The company's chemical warehouse business is developing rapidly, with total warehouse capacity reaching 64,900 square meters by the end of 2023, and is expected to become a second growth curve [2] - The company's revenue has grown steadily with the increase in storage capacity, reaching 1.498 billion yuan in 2023, a 24% year-on-year increase [2] Financial Projections - The company's total storage capacity is expected to reach 5.2032 million cubic meters, 5.6715 million cubic meters, and 6.2387 million cubic meters in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [55] - The company's storage occupancy rate is expected to be 71%, 77%, and 82% in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [55] - The company's storage rental price is expected to be 44.9 yuan, 45.2 yuan, and 45.5 yuan per cubic meter per month in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [55] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 238 million yuan, 305 million yuan, and 418 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [55]