KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Southwest Securities·2024-08-11 15:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 83.5 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.7 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-on-year [3] - The growth was driven by both Moutai liquor and series liquor, with Moutai liquor revenue reaching 68.6 billion yuan and series liquor revenue at 13.2 billion yuan in the first half of 2024 [3] - The company has a strong cash flow performance, with cash receipts of 87.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [3] - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the period of 2024-2026, which is the highest among liquor companies [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 69.46 yuan, 80.18 yuan, and 91.87 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 21x, 18x, and 16x [3] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - In Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.0%, and a net profit of 17.6 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year [3] - The revenue from wholesale and agency channels increased by 26.5% year-on-year to 48 billion yuan, while direct sales revenue grew by 7.3% to 33.7 billion yuan [3] Margin and Cash Flow - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 91.9%, remaining stable compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 51.7%, but profitability remains high [3] Future Outlook - The company is confident in achieving its annual revenue growth target, supported by its dual-driven strategy of Moutai and series liquor [3] - The company is focusing on three transformations in the domestic market and expanding into overseas markets to meet consumer demand [3]