Huafon Spandex(002064) 国泰君安·2024-08-11 23:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][9]. Core Views - The company's Q2 2024 performance met expectations, with a focus on upstream PTMEG layout to solidify cost advantages. The demand for elastic fabrics is driving growth in spandex demand, and the industry supply-demand dynamics are continuously improving, positioning the company to benefit significantly [7][8]. - The company has adjusted its 2024 EPS forecast to 0.64 CNY (previously 0.59 CNY) and maintains EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 at 0.72 CNY and 0.83 CNY, respectively. The target price for 2024 is set at 9.90 CNY, based on a PE ratio of 15.47 [8][9]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: Revenue of 25,884 million CNY, Net Profit of 2,844 million CNY - 2023A: Revenue of 26,298 million CNY, Net Profit of 2,478 million CNY - 2024E: Revenue of 27,778 million CNY, Net Profit of 3,183 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue of 30,988 million CNY, Net Profit of 3,557 million CNY - 2026E: Revenue of 35,619 million CNY, Net Profit of 4,128 million CNY [6][10]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Net Asset Return (ROE) is projected to be 11.7% in 2024, 12.0% in 2025, and 12.7% in 2026 [6][10]. - The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 15.08 for 2023, decreasing to 11.74 in 2024 and further to 9.05 in 2026 [6][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is a leader in the spandex, adipic acid, and raw liquid industries, leveraging its cost advantages and scale to maintain profitability despite price pressures in key products [8][9]. - The company is expanding its production capacity in BDO and PTMEG, which is expected to further enhance its cost advantages [8][9].