KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-08-12 01:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [7]. Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, and the dividend plan demonstrates strong commitment [2][5]. - The revenue for Q2 2024 reached 28.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with series liquor sales growing by 42.5% [4][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable net profit margin despite slight declines in gross margin due to product mix and cost pressures [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue (million yuan): - 2022A: 127,554 - 2023A: 150,560 - 2024E: 174,939 - 2025E: 202,056 - 2026E: 231,775 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 16.5, 18.0, 16.2, 15.5, 14.7 [5][28]. - Net Profit (million yuan): - 2022A: 62,717 - 2023A: 74,734 - 2024E: 88,692 - 2025E: 104,531 - 2026E: 122,115 - Year-on-Year Growth (%): 19.6, 19.2, 18.7, 17.9, 16.8 [5][28]. - Gross Margin (%): - 2022A: 92.1 - 2023A: 92.1 - 2024E: 92.4 - 2025E: 92.9 - 2026E: 93.5 [5][28]. - Net Margin (%): - 2022A: 51.3 - 2023A: 51.5 - 2024E: 53.3 - 2025E: 54.2 - 2026E: 55.0 [5][28]. - Return on Equity (ROE %): - 2022A: 31.9 - 2023A: 34.7 - 2024E: 33.5 - 2025E: 30.3 - 2026E: 27.9 [5][28]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 49.93 - 2023A: 59.49 - 2024E: 70.60 - 2025E: 83.21 - 2026E: 97.21 [5][28]. - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (P/E): - 2022A: 28.8 - 2023A: 24.2 - 2024E: 20.4 - 2025E: 17.3 - 2026E: 14.8 [5][28]. - Price-to-Book Ratio (P/B): - 2022A: 9.1 - 2023A: 8.4 - 2024E: 6.8 - 2025E: 5.3 - 2026E: 4.2 [5][28]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute cash dividends totaling no less than 75% of the annual net profit attributable to shareholders for the years 2024 to 2026, with a projected dividend yield above 3.7% [23].