中国船舶：从追赶到领军，20年深度回首

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC) with a target price of 47.0 yuan per share, based on a 4x PB valuation for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - CSIC has transitioned from a follower to a leader in the global shipbuilding industry, benefiting from favorable conditions during the 2003-2008 upcycle, internal improvements during the 2009-2020 downcycle, and a resurgence in the 2021-2024 upcycle [1] - The current upcycle is more sustainable and certain than the previous one, driven by aging and environmental regulations, constrained supply, and improved profitability [1] - CSIC is expected to benefit from both profitability and restructuring, with low-cost ship deliveries nearing completion and a potential increase in efficiency and scale post-asset integration [1] Historical Performance and Industry Cycles - During the 2003-2008 upcycle, CSIC capitalized on China's WTO accession, low steel prices, and labor cost advantages to expand its global market share [1][10] - The 2009-2020 downcycle saw CSIC focus on R&D, diversify its order structure, and maintain stable per capita output despite industry challenges [1][12] - The current upcycle, starting in 2021, is marked by a resurgence in container ship orders and a supply-demand imbalance, with CSIC leading the recovery [1][40] Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle is driven by aging and environmental regulations, with demand expected to be more sustained compared to the previous cycle, which was driven by trade growth [1][46] - Supply constraints are more pronounced in the current cycle, with limited capacity expansion and a concentration of market share among leading shipyards [1][51] - CSIC's market share has risen significantly, supported by lower costs, improved delivery capabilities, and enhanced competitiveness in high-end ship types [1][55] Profitability and Valuation - CSIC's profitability is expected to improve significantly, with gross margins for new orders nearing historical highs due to rising ship prices and falling steel prices [1][58] - The report forecasts CSIC's net profit to reach 5.16 billion yuan in 2024, 7.66 billion yuan in 2025, and 10.68 billion yuan in 2026, driven by higher ship prices and improved efficiency [1][71] - A 4x PB valuation is applied, reflecting CSIC's historical valuation range and the current recovery phase, with a target price of 47.0 yuan per share [1][74] Future Outlook - CSIC is expected to benefit from the delivery of high-value ships and the integration of group assets, which will enhance efficiency and profitability [1][62] - The shipbuilding industry is entering a new phase of sustained profitability, with CSIC well-positioned to capitalize on the upcycle and lead the global market [1][71]