中国动力：船舶的“心脏”，产业链的核心

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight-A" rating for the company, with a 6-month target price of 23.60 RMB [1] Core Views - The global shipbuilding industry is benefiting from the resonance of long, medium, and short-term cycles, and the current upward cycle may last longer than the previous one [1] - The shipbuilding industry chain has gradually shifted from Japan and South Korea to China, and the Chinese industry chain will continue to benefit from the current trend of rising volume and prices [1] - The power system is a crucial component of ships, and the company, as a core player in the power system, is expected to see further improvement in profitability due to the price-cost scissors effect [1][3] Industry Overview - The global shipbuilding industry is in an upward phase, driven by long, medium, and short-term cycles, with the current cycle expected to be longer than the previous one [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry chain has shifted from Japan and South Korea to China, and the Chinese industry chain is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of rising volume and prices [1][2] - The global shipbuilding market is in a phase of supply-demand mismatch, with both volume and prices continuing to rise [2] Company Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 451.03 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.79 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 134.30% [1] - The company's production, orders, and market share have continued to increase, with domestic market share rising to 78% and international market share to 39% [1] - The company is the only listed ship power platform under the China Shipbuilding Group and holds a leading position in the domestic ship power system R&D, design, manufacturing, and supporting fields [1] Market Trends - The global shipbuilding industry is in a new cycle of upward movement, with the current cycle expected to last longer than the previous one [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry is benefiting from long, medium, and short-term cycles, with the current cycle driven by global economic recovery, decarbonization policies, and geopolitical factors [1][2][28] - The global shipbuilding market is in a phase of supply-demand mismatch, with both volume and prices continuing to rise [2] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 540.2 billion RMB in 2024, 640.2 billion RMB in 2025, and 748.8 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.8%, 18.5%, and 17.0%, respectively [4] - Net profit is expected to reach 12.8 billion RMB in 2024, 21.0 billion RMB in 2025, and 30.7 billion RMB in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 64.2%, 64.0%, and 46.2%, respectively [4] Key Drivers - Long-term cycle: Global economic recovery post-pandemic and the fragmentation of global supply chains are driving global trade volume [1][28] - Medium-term cycle: Global decarbonization policies are accelerating the replacement of old ships, with 40% of oil tankers and bulk carriers theoretically not meeting the requirements [1][28] - Short-term cycle: Geopolitical factors, such as the Red Sea conflict, are increasing shipping distances, further driving demand for shipping capacity [1][28] Competitive Advantage - The company is the core force in China's ship power system R&D and production, and the only listed ship power platform under the China Shipbuilding Group [1] - The company holds a leading position in the domestic ship power system R&D, design, manufacturing, and supporting fields [1] - The company's market share in the domestic ship power system market has increased to 78%, and its international market share has risen to 39% [1] Industry Dynamics - The global shipbuilding industry is in a new cycle of upward movement, with the current cycle expected to last longer than the previous one [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry is benefiting from long, medium, and short-term cycles, with the current cycle driven by global economic recovery, decarbonization policies, and geopolitical factors [1][2][28] - The global shipbuilding market is in a phase of supply-demand mismatch, with both volume and prices continuing to rise [2]