CSICPCL(SH:600482) Guotou Securities·2024-08-12 07:46Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate - A" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The global shipbuilding industry is benefiting from a triple-cycle resonance, entering an upward phase that may last longer than the previous cycle [1][2]. - The shipbuilding industry chain is gradually shifting from Japan and South Korea to China, with the domestic industry expected to continue benefiting from the rising trend in both volume and price [1][2]. - The company, as a core player in the power system for ships, is expected to see further improvements in profitability due to a price-cost divergence [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Accumulate - A" with a target price of 23.60 CNY, reflecting a 40x PE for 2024 [4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 45.103 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 17.77%, and a net profit of 779 million CNY, up 134.30% year-on-year [1][21]. - The company’s low-speed diesel engine production reached 403 units in 2023, a 10.71% increase, with order intake rising to 560 units, a 42.49% increase [1][21]. Business Segments - The company operates in multiple segments, including diesel power, chemical power, marine platforms, and more, with diesel power contributing 172.15 billion CNY in revenue in 2023, accounting for 38.17% of total revenue [15][23]. - The chemical power segment, primarily focused on automotive batteries, generated 102.34 billion CNY in revenue, representing 22.69% of total revenue [16]. Market Dynamics - The shipbuilding industry is currently in a cyclical upturn, with strong demand and a mismatch in supply, leading to a sustained trend of rising volume and price [2][4]. - The report highlights that the shipbuilding cycle is characterized by significant fluctuations and long spans, with the average cycle lasting between 5 to 15 years [28][31]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 54.02 billion CNY, 64.02 billion CNY, and 74.88 billion CNY, with corresponding net profits of 1.28 billion CNY, 2.10 billion CNY, and 3.07 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 64.2%, 64.0%, and 46.2% respectively [4][5].