Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 16.24 HKD [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the automotive aftermarket is currently under pressure due to a trend of consumer downtrading, but there is optimism for long-term growth driven by the expansion of proprietary product categories and improved profitability [2][3]. - The company is expected to benefit from changes in the automotive market structure, particularly as traditional dealership supply shrinks and third-party service providers gain market share [3]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected at 14.558 billion, 16.013 billion, and 17.934 billion RMB for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 10%, and 12% [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: Revenue of 11,563 million RMB, Net Profit of -2,136 million RMB - 2023A: Revenue of 13,606 million RMB, Net Profit of 6,703 million RMB - 2024E: Revenue of 14,558 million RMB, Net Profit of 716 million RMB - 2025E: Revenue of 16,013 million RMB, Net Profit of 1,068 million RMB - 2026E: Revenue of 17,934 million RMB, Net Profit of 1,370 million RMB [1][5]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) is projected to be 8.26, 0.88, 1.31, and 1.69 RMB for 2023, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1][5]. - The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 16.7, 11.2, and 8.7 for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The automotive aftermarket is experiencing a decline in service visits, with a 1% year-on-year drop in the second quarter, indicating a challenging macro environment [2]. - The company is expanding its store presence in lower-tier cities, which is anticipated to drive steady business growth [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for improved profitability through the continuous increase in proprietary product offerings and enhanced supply chain negotiation capabilities [2][3].
途虎-W：消费下沉趋势致行业短期承压，坚定看好长期破局成长性