YTL(SZ:000960) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-08-12 13:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 13.87 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the tin and indium market, with a comprehensive supply chain that includes exploration, mining, smelting, and deep processing of non-ferrous metals [4][5]. - The company has the largest tin production and processing base in China and holds the world's longest and most complete tin industry chain [4][5]. - The company’s tin resources amount to 646,400 tons, with a smelting capacity of 80,000 tons per year, capturing 47.92% of the domestic market and 22.92% of the global market [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a strong upward trend in tin prices due to improving demand in the semiconductor sector and supply constraints from major producing countries [4][5][26]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 42.36 billion CNY, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, with net profit expected to be 1.408 billion CNY, a 5% increase [1][19]. - Forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.165 billion CNY, 2.317 billion CNY, and 2.413 billion CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 54%, 7%, and 4% [1][6]. - The estimated P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.5, 9.9, and 9.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [6][19]. Industry Overview - The tin market is experiencing a recovery driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and a rebound in consumer electronics demand [4][26]. - Supply-side challenges include mining halts in Myanmar and regulatory delays in Indonesia, leading to a significant reduction in tin exports from these regions [26][35]. - The long-term outlook for tin prices is positive, with expectations of a gradual increase in price levels due to supply rigidity and rising demand from sectors such as photovoltaics and semiconductors [4][5][26].