wanhua(600309) 国泰君安·2024-08-12 15:39Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating with a target price of 91.43 yuan, down from 102.14 yuan [2][3] Core Views - Q2 performance meets expectations with revenue of 509.06 billion yuan, up 11.42% YoY and 10.28% QoQ, but net profit declined by 11.03% YoY and 3.38% QoQ to 40.17 billion yuan [2] - Gross profit margin for Q2 was 15.31%, down 0.09 pct YoY and 2.32 pct QoQ, while net profit margin was 8.66%, down 1.98 pct YoY and 1.23 pct QoQ [2] - The decline in profitability is attributed to rising costs, with the average price of pure benzene increasing by 24.35% YoY to 8,652 yuan/ton in H1 2024 [2] - Q2 production and sales volumes increased significantly, with total production up 22% YoY and 5% QoQ to 3.38 million tons, and total sales up 20% YoY and 3% QoQ to 3.24 million tons [2] - The company's polyurethane and new materials businesses drove revenue growth, benefiting from strong MDI market dynamics and global demand [2] Business Highlights - Polyurethane: Completed the expansion of the Fujian MDI project from 400,000 tons/year to 800,000 tons/year [2] - Petrochemicals: Key projects such as PDH, POCHP, EO, polyether, EOD, and storage facilities are in the pipeline pressure testing and cable laying stages, with ethylene phase II and Penglai phase I projects progressing [2] - New Materials: The first phase of the 200,000 tons/year POE project has commenced production, with emerging businesses like citral and fragrances advancing [2] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue reached 970.67 billion yuan, up 10.77% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 81.74 billion yuan, down 4.60% YoY [2] - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 6.27/7.51/8.50 yuan, with a 25-year PE ratio of 12.18x [2] - The company's market cap is 235.23 billion yuan, with a current price of 74.92 yuan [4] - Net debt ratio stands at 75.94%, with shareholder equity at 92.402 billion yuan and a P/B ratio of 2.5x [5] Market Performance - The stock has underperformed over the past 12 months, with a 20% decline in absolute terms and a 9% underperformance relative to the index [6] - The 52-week price range is 67.70-97.76 yuan [4] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 200.603 billion yuan in 2024E to 271.841 billion yuan in 2026E, with net profit increasing from 19.683 billion yuan to 26.699 billion yuan over the same period [8] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 19-20% from 2024E to 2026E [8] - The company's EV/EBITDA is forecasted to decline from 7.66x in 2024E to 5.80x in 2026E, indicating improving valuation metrics [8]