金斯瑞生物科技：减亏进行中，前景仍光明

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GenScript Biotech (1548 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.04 [2][6] Core Views - GenScript Biotech's 1H24 revenue reached USD 561 million, a 43.5% YoY increase, with a net loss of USD 216 million, narrowing by USD 30 million YoY [2] - The cell therapy division contributed 50% of total revenue in 1H24, driven by CARVYKTI sales and milestone payments [2] - The non-cell therapy division saw a slight revenue decline of 0.2% YoY, with life sciences and synthetic biology showing growth, while CDMO faced challenges [2] - The report forecasts a turnaround in net profit, with expected figures of -USD 118 million, USD 146 million, and USD 596 million for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [2] Cell Therapy Division - CARVYKTI sales are expected to improve in 2H24 due to expanded indications and increased production capacity [3] - The company anticipates reaching an annual production capacity of 10,000 cases by the end of 2025, supported by new facilities and partnerships [3] - R&D expenses for the cell therapy division are expected to peak in 2024 [3] Non-Cell Therapy Division - Life sciences revenue grew by 9.6% YoY in 1H24, with adjusted operating profit increasing by 23.8% [4] - CDMO revenue declined by 43% YoY due to market competition and funding challenges, with a full-year guidance of -15% to -10% revenue growth [4] - Synthetic biology revenue surged by 43.4% YoY, driven by strong demand for feed and industrial enzymes [4] Valuation - The report values GenScript Biotech at HKD 55.4 billion using the SOTP method, with HKD 24.9 billion attributed to the non-cell therapy division and HKD 30.5 billion to the cell therapy division [10][11][13] - The non-cell therapy division is valued at a 5.25x PS multiple, reflecting a 20% discount to comparable companies [11] - The cell therapy division's valuation is based on a 20% discount to Legend Biotech's Nasdaq market capitalization, considering GenScript's 48% stake [13] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is projected at USD 1.17 billion, USD 1.82 billion, and USD 3.02 billion, respectively [2][8] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to turn positive in 2025E, reaching USD 382 million, and further increasing to USD 1.44 billion in 2026E [15] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve significantly, from -5.81% in 2024E to 15.06% in 2026E [15]