BEKE-贝壳：在不确定的环境中获得稳定的市场份额

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Ke Holdings with a target price of $21.50, slightly adjusted from the previous target of$ 22.00, reflecting a potential upside of 53.2% from the current price of $14.03 [2]. Core Insights - Ke Holdings reported a 20% year-over-year revenue growth in Q2, reaching RMB 23.4 billion, exceeding both the forecast and consensus estimates by 9% [2]. - Non-GAAP net income for the quarter was RMB 2.7 billion, surpassing expectations by 48%, attributed to revenue growth and optimized operating expenses [2]. - The company is expected to maintain its market share growth in core business segments due to strong industry demand and an efficient agency network [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached RMB 23.4 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year, driven by new home transactions (NHT) and existing home transactions (EHT) [2]. - Non-GAAP net income was RMB 2.7 billion, exceeding expectations by 48% [2]. - The company anticipates a revenue growth of 44% year-over-year in the home renovation and furniture business for 2024 [2]. Market Share and Business Outlook - Ke Holdings experienced significant market share growth in both EHT and NHT segments, with EHT online registrations increasing by 16% year-over-year in major cities [2]. - The company’s NHT gross transaction value (GTV) declined by 20% year-over-year, while the overall industry saw a 35% decline, indicating strong competitive positioning [2]. - Management is shifting focus from rapid scale expansion to profit margin improvement in the home renovation segment, with profit margins increasing to 31% in Q2 2024 [2]. Shareholder Returns - The management has repurchased shares worth$ 480 million, representing 2.75% of shares outstanding as of the end of 2023, and has expanded the buyback program to $3 billion [2]. - The company aims to maintain a shareholder return target of 6-7% annually through buybacks and dividends [2]. Real Estate Market Trends - The report notes a slowdown in sales momentum during the typical summer sales lull, with new home sales in July and August showing a month-over-month decline of 24% and 19%, respectively [2]. - Leading indicators suggest a narrowing decline in new home sales, with expectations for increased project launches in September and October [4].