康缘药业：短期利润有所扰动，关注销售复苏节奏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance has been impacted by compliance measures and industry policies, but there are signs of recovery in sales and product pipeline [2][3]. - The company has demonstrated strong R&D capabilities, with a focus on innovative products and clinical trials, which are expected to enhance its product portfolio [2][3]. - The implementation of the "Doctor Pan" project aims to improve sales compliance and expand the OTC market presence, which is anticipated to benefit long-term growth [2][3]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.49%, and a net profit of 265 million yuan, down 3.73% [1]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a significant decline in revenue to 901 million yuan, a year-on-year drop of 24.98% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 33.72% [1]. - The company’s R&D expenses for the first half of 2024 were 339 million yuan, representing a 15.01% R&D expense ratio, which is an increase of 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Product Performance - The injection products, primarily Heat Toxicity Ning Injection and Ginkgo Biloba Terpene Lactone Injection, generated 840 million yuan in revenue, down 27.49% year-on-year [2]. - Jin Zhen Oral Liquid, included in several pediatric respiratory disease guidelines, achieved a revenue growth of 28.60% year-on-year, totaling 544 million yuan [2]. - The company has submitted NDA applications for three new products and completed Phase III clinical trials for two products, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [2]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 8.3 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 8.2 billion yuan [3]. - The major shareholder, Jiangsu Kangyuan Group Co., Ltd., holds a 30.28% stake in the company [3]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a healthy balance sheet with a debt-to-asset ratio of 24.4% [3]. Future Projections - The report projects a slight recovery in net profit for 2024-2026, with expected figures of 540 million yuan, 646 million yuan, and 757 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1%, 20%, and 17% respectively [2][5]. - The estimated PE ratios for the next three years are 15, 13, and 11 times, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [2][5].