科伦药业：H124业绩略低于一致预期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month target price of Rmb40.30 [6][19]. Core Insights - The company's H124 performance slightly missed consensus expectations, with revenue of Rmb11,827 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit of Rmb1,800 million, up 28.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - Key drivers for profit improvement include enhanced market development for infusion and non-infusion drugs, increased volume and price for intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients, and a reduction in interest-bearing debt and financing rates [3]. - The company maintains its previous guidance for FY24 net profit (excluding Kolun Botai) to reach Rmb3.2-3.25 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of over 15% [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H124 revenue was Rmb11,827 million, slightly below UBS's forecast of Rmb11,912 million and consensus expectations of Rmb11,918 million, reflecting a -0.8% variance [5]. - H124 net profit was Rmb1,800 million, exceeding UBS's estimate of Rmb1,631 million but falling short of consensus expectations of Rmb1,837 million, showing a -2.0% variance [5]. Business Outlook - The company expects infusion business to grow over 15% year-on-year, non-infusion drugs to grow approximately 15%, intermediates and active pharmaceutical ingredients to grow around 20%, and external investment to grow about 10% [4]. - Anticipated investor focus includes the registration progress and timeline for key products like SKB264, demand trends for infusion products related to respiratory infections, and the potential impact of the tenth batch of national procurement [3]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is Rmb49.9 billion (approximately US$6.95 billion) with a 52-week stock price range of Rmb35.01 to Rmb22.59 [6]. - The average daily trading volume is 12,332 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of Rmb393.2 million [6].