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好未来:静待盈利改善
TALTAL(TAL) Tianfeng Securities·2024-08-13 06:50

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating with a 6-month outlook [3] Core Views - The company reported FY25Q1 revenue of $410 million, a 50% YoY increase, with net income attributable to shareholders of $10 million, turning from a loss to a profit [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit was $880,000, and Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was $30 million, both turning from losses to profits [1] - Gross margin improved to 51.7%, up 2.4 percentage points YoY, while sales and marketing expenses decreased by 6 percentage points to 29.6%, and management expenses decreased by 12 percentage points to 26.5% [1] - The company's deferred revenue reached $640 million by the end of May, a 66% YoY increase [2] Business Performance Learning Services - The learning services business maintained growth momentum in FY25Q1, with the largest revenue contribution coming from the "Peiyou Small Class" quality education courses [1] - The company expanded its learning center network to meet the demand during the summer peak season, driving growth in student enrollment and maintaining stable retention and utilization rates [1] - Online learning business enhanced user interaction and optimized the learning experience [1] Content Solutions - The "Xueersi Learning Machine" achieved YoY growth in FY25Q1, with the launch of an upgraded classic version featuring improved hardware performance and expanded SKU options [1] - The learning machine is positioned for home-based self-learning scenarios, with continuous upgrades in both hardware and software, integrating AI-driven features to provide better learning tools [1] AI and Technology - The "Jiuzhang Large Model" completed the first round of education large model evaluation by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, receiving the highest rating of 4+ [2] - The company launched the "Jiuzhang Math Search and Q&A Tool" in June, providing students with a more convenient and efficient learning aid [2] - The company plans to continue developing the large model, improving data quality and adapting it to different ages, content, and scenarios [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for FY25-FY27 are updated to $2.1 billion, $2.6 billion, and $3.2 billion, respectively, compared to previous estimates of $1.87 billion and $2.29 billion for FY25 and FY26 [2] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders is projected to be $110 million, $220 million, and $410 million for FY25-FY27, compared to previous estimates of $136 million and $253 million for FY25 and FY26 [2] - EPS is expected to be $0.5, $1.1, and $2.0 per share for FY25-FY27, compared to previous estimates of $0.64 and $1.19 for FY25 and FY26 [2] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 51x, 26x, and 14x for FY25-FY27 [2]