KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Donghai Securities·2024-08-13 07:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock in the near term [11]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 83.45 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.56%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 41.70 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-on-year [11]. - The company plans to increase its regular dividend payout ratio from an average of 51.9% over the past five years to over 75% for the years 2024-2026, enhancing the certainty of returns for investors [12]. - The company’s gross margin for H1 2024 was 91.76%, with a net profit margin of 52.70%, indicating stable profitability [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profitability: - H1 2024 total revenue: 83.45 billion yuan (+17.56% YoY) - H1 2024 net profit: 41.70 billion yuan (+15.88% YoY) [11] - Margins: - H1 2024 gross margin: 91.76% (YoY -0.04pct) - H1 2024 net profit margin: 52.70% (YoY -0.96pct) [4] - Cash Flow: - H1 2024 operating cash flow: 36.62 billion yuan (+20.52% YoY) - H1 2024 contract liabilities: 9.99 billion yuan (+36.25% YoY) [4] Product and Channel Performance - Product Revenue: - Revenue from Moutai liquor in H1 2024: 68.57 billion yuan (+15.67% YoY) - Revenue from series liquor: 13.15 billion yuan (+30.51% YoY) [24] - Sales Channels: - Direct sales revenue: 33.73 billion yuan (+7.35% YoY) - Wholesale revenue: 47.99 billion yuan (+26.50% YoY) [24] Future Projections - Expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 87.65 billion yuan, 101.69 billion yuan, and 116.03 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 69.77 yuan, 80.95 yuan, and 92.36 yuan [25].