固德威：并网出货放量，储能蓄势待发，业绩弹性可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant recovery in performance after hitting a low in Q1 2024, with a strong increase in grid-connected shipments anticipated for the year [2]. - The European market is showing signs of inventory stabilization, coupled with a declining interest rate cycle, which is expected to drive growth in high-margin household storage business [2]. - The company has a strong competitive position in Europe and emerging markets, with substantial growth opportunities [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading String Inverter Manufacturer with High Growth in Energy Storage - The company ranks among the top five globally in string inverter shipments, holding a 5% market share as of 2022 [4]. - The company has maintained a stable position in the competitive solar inverter market since 2020, consistently ranking in the top ten [4]. 2. Steady Revenue Growth and Performance Recovery in Q1 2024 - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 7.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.1%, with a net profit of 850 million yuan, up 31.2% [20]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue in Q1 2024, with 1.13 billion yuan, down 34.5% year-on-year, attributed to overseas inventory issues [20]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 27.5%, a decrease of 11.6 percentage points year-on-year, but recovery is expected as inventory issues resolve [20]. 3. Stable Growth in Grid-Connected Business - The company reported grid-connected inverter revenue of 2.86 billion yuan in 2023, a 43.0% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.4% [34]. - The average selling price of the company's products is stable, positioned in the mid-to-high end of the market [34]. 4. Energy Storage Business with First-Mover Advantage - The company has been a pioneer in the dual inverter product development since 2012, leading in household energy storage inverter shipments globally [60]. - In 2023, energy storage product revenue reached 2.44 billion yuan, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in battery shipments [60]. 5. Diversified Business Extensions Covering Zero-Carbon Living Scenarios - The company is expanding into integrated energy solutions for various applications, including RVs and smart energy products, leveraging its expertise in energy storage [79]. 6. Inverter Industry: Light Asset Attributes and Cost Control - The company maintains a high proportion of current assets, with over 80% of inverter costs attributed to direct materials, ensuring stable supply and cost control [80]. 7. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to ship 774,000 grid-connected inverters and 100,000 energy storage inverters in 2024, with expected revenues of 9.17 billion yuan and net profits of 704 million yuan [86]. - The report assigns a PE valuation range of 29-31 times for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 84.39-90.21 yuan per share [86].