Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for the company, considering its strong product capabilities, international expansion, and high growth potential [1][47] Core Views - The company is a leading Chinese invisible orthodontic company with a dominant market share of 41.7% in 2023, significantly ahead of its competitor Invisalign (31.8%) [1] - The company has a strong brand effect due to its first-mover advantage, with 18 years of service history and a large cumulative case volume, creating high barriers for new entrants [1] - The company has a comprehensive product matrix, including Classic, Champion, Children, and COMFOS versions, catering to diverse patient needs and driving steady growth in domestic market share [1] - International business is accelerating, with overseas cases reaching 33,000 in 2023, contributing to a second growth engine despite short-term profitability pressure [1] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.748 billion, RMB 2.280 billion, and RMB 2.670 billion in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 18.4%, 30.4%, and 17.1%, respectively [1] Financial Forecasts - Domestic case volume is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10%+, with 2024-2026 case volumes of 239,900, 268,500, and 297,800, respectively [44] - Overseas case volume is projected to grow rapidly, with 2024-2026 case volumes of 76,400, 153,800, and 199,900, respectively, driven by international expansion [44] - Revenue from overseas business is expected to reach RMB 378 million, RMB 842 million, and RMB 1.143 billion in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 149.05%, 122.69%, and 35.70%, respectively [44] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable, with domestic invisible orthodontic gross margin at 65.2%, 66.0%, and 66.0% in 2024-2026, and overseas gross margin at 57.59%, 61.41%, and 62.55% [44] - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 86 million, RMB 253 million, and RMB 389 million in 2024-2026, with YoY growth of 61.2%, 193.6%, and 53.8%, respectively [44] Market and Industry Analysis - The Chinese orthodontic market is expected to grow from USD 7.9 billion in 2020 to USD 29.6 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 14.2% [17] - The global invisible orthodontic market is projected to grow from USD 12.2 billion in 2020 to USD 46.2 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 14.2% [32] - Invisible orthodontics is gaining popularity due to its advantages in comfort, aesthetics, and treatment efficiency, with a growth rate of 34.59% in China [20] - The penetration rate of invisible orthodontics in China is low at 10.5% in 2019, compared to 33.1% in the US, indicating significant growth potential [25] Company Strengths - The company has a strong brand and high doctor loyalty due to its first-mover advantage and extensive case database, making it difficult for new entrants to compete [28] - The company provides comprehensive backend support for general dentists, enabling them to offer invisible orthodontic services and expanding the service population [27] - The company has a diversified product portfolio, including Classic, Champion, Children, and COMFOS versions, catering to different market segments and driving penetration in lower-tier cities [30] - The company is actively expanding its international business, with operations in over 30 countries and regions, and has established a strong presence in Brazil through the acquisition of Aditek [39][40]
时代天使：深度报告：国内份额稳步增长，国际业务加速推进