KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Wanlian Securities·2024-08-13 12:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [4][7][24]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 83.451 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 17.56%, with a net profit of 41.696 billion yuan, up 15.88% year-over-year [2][7]. - The gross profit margin and net profit margin slightly decreased, with the gross margin at 91.76% and net margin at 49.96% for the first half of 2024 [3][7]. - Direct sales revenue increased by 7.35% year-over-year, while wholesale agency revenue grew by 26.50%, indicating a shift in sales channel dynamics [4][7]. - The company successfully increased the price of its flagship product, reflecting its strong market position [6][7]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 68.567 billion yuan from its flagship liquor, with series liquor revenue reaching 13.147 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year growth of 30.51% [14]. - The company expects to meet its revenue targets for 2024, with projected net profits of 86.937 billion yuan, 100.238 billion yuan, and 116.215 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 16.33%, 15.30%, and 15.94% [7][15]. Channel Performance - The direct sales channel accounted for 41.28% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, down 4.03 percentage points from the previous year, while wholesale agency sales made up 58.72% [4][7]. - The "i Moutai" app generated revenue of 10.250 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, showing a year-over-year increase of 9.76% [4][7]. Financial Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 69.21 yuan, 79.79 yuan, and 92.51 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 18, and 16 [7][15].