东方财富:公司半年报点评:基金销售承压,证券业务平稳运营

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6][9] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is facing pressure in fund sales due to significant market fluctuations in 2024, with new fund issuance remaining low. However, the securities business is operating steadily, with an increasing market share in margin trading and substantial growth in investment income. The introduction of an equity incentive plan reflects the company's confidence in its development [6][7][9] - The reasonable value range for the company's stock is estimated to be between 12.16 and 14.13 yuan, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported total operating revenue of 4.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.0%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.06 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) was 0.26 yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 5.52%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] - For Q2 2024, total operating revenue was 2.49 billion yuan, down 15.4% year-on-year but up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 2.10 billion yuan, down 4.3% year-on-year but up 7.6% quarter-on-quarter [6] Fund Distribution Business - The company's fund distribution revenue decreased by 29.7% year-on-year, while the total sales amount remained stable. The total new fund issuance in the market for the first half of 2024 was 660.7 billion units, an increase of 26.1% year-on-year, but the issuance of equity funds dropped by 33.9% year-on-year [6][7] Securities Business - The brokerage business maintained a stable market share, with the margin trading market share continuing to rise. The company's commission income from brokerage services was 2.39 billion yuan, down 4.0% year-on-year, while the trading volume of stock funds was 9.21 trillion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year [6][9] - The net interest income from margin trading was 1.03 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year, with the amount of funds lent at 43.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.8% from the beginning of the year, but the company's margin trading market share increased by 0.4 percentage points to 2.9% [6][9] Proprietary Business - The company experienced a significant increase in investment net income (including fair value) of 1.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%, primarily driven by the growth in fixed income business [6][7] Research and Development - The company has increased its research and development efforts, with the R&D expense ratio rising by 2.4 percentage points to 11.2%. Management expenses also increased, with the management expense ratio up by 2.8 percentage points to 23.2% [7][9] Valuation - The report estimates the company's net profit for 2024 to be 7.779 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year. Using a segment valuation method, the reasonable market value is estimated to be between 1920 billion and 2230 billion yuan, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 12.16 to 14.13 yuan per share [6][9]