贵州茅台：短期风险得到缓解，经营重心或有转向

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [14]. Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's revenue for 2023 is projected to reach 147.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 19.0%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 74.73 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.2% [1]. - The company has committed to distributing no less than 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders as cash dividends annually from 2024 to 2026, with projected dividend yields of 3.7%, 4.3%, and 4.8% respectively [5][18]. - The company has shown resilience in the face of market fluctuations, with a second-quarter revenue of 408.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, indicating enhanced confidence in the market [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2024E Revenue: 174.57 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 18.2% - 2024E Net Profit: 87.69 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [1]. - Key Financial Ratios: - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to be 34.7% in 2023, with a slight decline to 30.5% by 2026 [1]. - Earnings per Share (EPS) is expected to grow from 59.49 yuan in 2023 to 94.68 yuan in 2026 [1]. - The company maintains a high gross margin of approximately 90.68% and a net profit margin of 50.60% for the first half of 2023 [17]. Strategic Insights - The new chairman has emphasized the importance of the distributor network and adjusted the delivery rhythm in response to price fluctuations, which has contributed to a diversified growth strategy [2]. - The company is focusing on stabilizing its existing operational framework while navigating through industry pressures, which is expected to support long-term growth [2]. - Guizhou Moutai's brand strength and market influence position it well to benefit from structural growth opportunities in the high-end liquor market [20].