Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.77 HKD per share [4][10][14]. Core Views - The company reported better-than-expected performance for the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 4.191 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.713 billion RMB by 13% [2][6]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 702 million RMB, up 16% year-on-year, also exceeding the consensus estimate of 655 million RMB by 7% [2][6]. - The company is focusing on high-quality paid content distribution, leading to a decline in free content supply on Tencent channels, which has affected user numbers and revenue [2][6][10]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In H1 2024, the company's online business revenue was 1.940 billion RMB, down 2% year-on-year, with self-operated and Tencent channel revenue at 1.825 billion RMB, down 3% [6][9]. - The total monthly active users (MAU) decreased by 17% to 17.6 million, with self-operated MAU stable at 10.5 million and Tencent MAU down 33.5% [6][9]. - The company’s IP operations generated 1.153 billion RMB in revenue, a 62% increase year-on-year, driven by IP licensing and sales [7][10]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company expects total revenue to reach 7.768 billion RMB in 2024 and 8.002 billion RMB in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 10.8% and 3% respectively [10][11]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be 1.410 billion RMB in 2024 and 1.686 billion RMB in 2025, with growth rates of 24.8% and 19.6% [10][11]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 52% in 2024 and 53% in 2025, with adjusted net profit margins of 18% and 21% respectively [10][11]. Valuation - The report uses a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating the core business's value at 19.34 HKD per share and the value of New Classics Media at 13.43 HKD per share, leading to a total valuation of 32.77 HKD per share [10][14][15].
阅文集团：24H1业绩超预期，优质IP多维变现