Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on the company with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of HKD 49.80, indicating a potential upside of 97.6% from the current price of HKD 25.20 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading supplier of analog IC patterned wafers in China, with a unique full-stack design platform that integrates EDA, IP, and design processes. This positions the company favorably in the industrial-grade analog IC market, which is expected to support long-term profitability [7][20]. - The company is projected to achieve a robust revenue growth rate of 38.0% from 2023 to 2026, with stable profit margins expected to maintain at 54% gross margin and 23% net margin in 2024/25 [7][11]. - The valuation appears attractive, with a projected P/E ratio of 10.3x for 2024/25 compared to the industry average of 30.8x for Hong Kong-listed peers [7][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 353 million in FY22 to RMB 1,220 million by FY26, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% [2]. - Gross margin is projected to remain stable, with estimates of 53.8% in FY24 and 54.3% in FY25 [2]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from RMB 95.3 million in FY22 to RMB 305.2 million by FY26, with a CAGR of 45% [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a 1.7% market share in the analog IC patterned wafer market, ranking first in revenue according to Frost & Sullivan [7][20]. - The industrial-grade analog IC market is characterized as a long-tail market with diverse downstream demand and lower competition compared to consumer-grade markets. The market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5% from 2024 to 2027, reaching RMB 242 billion [9][29]. - The company has established strong partnerships with distributors, with 87% of its revenue in 2023 coming from distribution channels, indicating a strategic approach to leverage partner resources for growth [32]. Competitive Advantages - The company possesses three key differentiators: being a leading supplier of analog IC patterned wafers, focusing on the industrial-grade analog IC market, and having the only full-stack analog IC design platform in China [22][20]. - The full-stack design platform enhances efficiency in IC design and wafer delivery, reduces geopolitical risks, and provides cost advantages [10][20]. - The company has developed over 400 models of industrial-grade analog IC patterned wafers, with a projected CAGR of 23.4% in product variety from 2023 to 2026 [7][20].
贝克微：中国领先的模拟图案晶圆供应商有望实现长期增长