Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" investment rating to the company [3]. Core Insights - The company's online business remains stable, and copyright operations have exceeded expectations, with a focus on the incremental contributions from short dramas and derivative products [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 28%, which is better than the market expectation of 13% [1]. - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 700 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, surpassing market expectations by 7% [1]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in overall revenue for the year, primarily due to a robust core paid platform and increased third-party platform collaborations offsetting the contraction in Tencent's channel [2]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2022: 7,626 million RMB, 2023: 7,012 million RMB, 2024E: 7,804 million RMB, 2025E: 7,995 million RMB, 2026E: 8,334 million RMB, with a projected growth rate of 11.3% for 2024 [3][8]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 is set at 1.4 billion RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 25% compared to 2023 [3][8]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 51% for 2024, with operational profit margins improving to 12% by 2025 [8][11]. Business Segments - The online business segment showed a slight decline of 2% year-on-year, with self-operated channels maintaining a steady MAU of 105 million and 8.8 million paid users [1][7]. - Copyright operations saw a significant increase of 73% year-on-year, driven by the release of major series and the expansion of core IP licensing [1][7]. - New business areas, including short dramas and derivative products, are expected to contribute positively, with the IP card game generating a GMV of 100 million RMB in the first half of the year [1][2]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 29 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 14.4% from the current price of 25.35 HKD [1][9]. - The report slightly raises the adjusted net profit forecast for 2024 by 1% to 1.4 billion RMB, based on a compound annual growth rate of 21% from 2023 to 2025 [2][8].
阅文集团：在线业务维稳，版权运营超预期，关注短剧、衍生品增量贡献