东方财富：费改下代销业务步入新周期，大自营托底业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongfang Caifu, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [3][11]. Core Views - The company is entering a new cycle in its distribution business following fee reforms, with self-operated businesses providing a stable performance [1]. - The recent financial results show a total revenue of 4.945 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and a net profit of 4.055 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s market share in margin financing continues to improve, while self-operated business has shown significant growth, indicating resilience amid a weak macroeconomic environment [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: Projected revenues for 2024E are 10.707 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 3.38%, followed by growth of 11.80% in 2025E [1][7]. - Net Profit: Expected net profit for 2024E is 8.154 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.48% year-on-year, but projected growth of 2.76% in 2025E [1][7]. - Return on Equity (ROE): Expected ROE for 2024E is 14.65%, with a gradual decline projected in subsequent years [1][7]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Projected EPS for 2024E is 0.52 yuan, with slight increases expected in 2025E and 2026E [1][6]. Business Segment Insights - Fund Distribution Revenue: Revenue from fund distribution is expected to decline significantly, with a projected decrease of 30% in 2024E [7]. - Securities Business Revenue: The securities business is projected to recover with a growth rate of 10% in 2024E [7]. - AI Development: The company is enhancing its platform capabilities through AI advancements, which are expected to improve operational efficiency and governance [2][6]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing reforms in the capital market, with expectations of continued growth in its core brokerage and margin financing businesses [2][6]. - The valuation of Dongfang Caifu is considered favorable compared to other A-share fintech companies, indicating a strategic window for investment [2].