Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 29.00, representing a 57.8% upside potential from the current price [2][5] Core Views - The company's 24Q2 revenue reached USD 480 million, a 4% QoQ increase but a 24% YoY decline, with a gross margin of 10.5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was USD 6.67 million, down 92% YoY and 79% QoQ, with a capacity utilization rate of 98%, up 6 ppts QoQ [2] - The company expects 24Q3 revenue to grow 4-9% QoQ, with gross margin improving to 10-12% [2] - Recovery in the consumer electronics and AI sectors drove 24H1 revenue growth, while the power device market remains weak [2] - The company's 12-inch fab is expected to start mass production in 25Q1, with 40,000 wafers per month capacity by mid-2025 [2] - Wafer ASP is expected to gradually recover, with 2024-2026 ASPs projected at USD 422/522/566, and gross margins at 11.6%/21.1%/27.7% [2] Financial Performance Summary - 24Q2 eNVM revenue was USD 140 million, up 15% QoQ but down 34.2% YoY, driven by lower MCU ASPs and reduced demand for smart card chips [2] - Discrete device revenue was USD 150 million, up 6.3% QoQ but down 39.4% YoY, due to lower demand and ASPs for IGBT and super-junction products [2] - Logic and RF revenue was USD 60 million, up 11% YoY, benefiting from growth in CIS and logic product demand [2] - Analog and power management revenue was USD 100 million, down 0.4% QoQ but up 25.7% YoY, driven by increased demand for power-related products [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain high capacity utilization, with wafer ASPs gradually recovering, supported by strong demand for CIS, RF, and PMIC products [2] - The automotive and industrial markets remain uncertain, putting pressure on power device and MCU product prices [2] - The company's second 12-inch fab is expected to contribute to ASP improvements starting in 2025, with significant capacity expansion planned [2] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue is projected at USD 1.97/2.94/3.45 billion, with net profits of USD -47/196/519 million [2][4] - 2024-2026 gross margins are forecasted at 11.6%/21.1%/27.7%, with EBITDA margins at 24.4%/42.2%/47.4% [4][6] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024 is estimated at 1x, supporting the target price of HKD 29.00 [2]
华虹半导体：产能接近满载，均价有望逐步回升