SHUANGHUI(SZ:000895) Guohai Securities·2024-08-14 23:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's meat product sales are under short-term pressure, with a significant decline in sales volume due to weak macro demand and changes in food sales channel structures. The company has seen a drop in ham sausage sales, primarily affected by the decline in traditional retail channels [4][5]. - Despite the sales decline, the company's profit per ton for meat products remains high, benefiting from lower raw material costs. However, there has been a slight decrease in profit per ton compared to the previous quarter due to the drop in sales volume [4][6]. - The company has maintained a high dividend policy, with a mid-year dividend of 0.66 yuan per share, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 27.672 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.296 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, the operating revenue was 13.364 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan, down 24% year-on-year [6][10]. - The company's meat product sales volume declined by approximately 14% in Q2 2024, attributed to weak macro demand and changes in sales channels [4][5]. Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts the company's operating revenue for 2024-2026 to be 55.3 billion, 58.0 billion, and 61.0 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year changes of -8%, +5%, and +5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.7 billion, 5.0 billion, and 5.2 billion yuan, respectively [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.37, 1.44, and 1.51 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 16, and 15 times [9][10]. Market Position - The company is positioned to continue developing new products in response to market demand, particularly in low-temperature, frozen, and snack food segments. It aims to expand its distribution channels, including online platforms [5][6].