Inovance(300124) 华创证券·2024-08-14 23:38Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 65.9 RMB, current price at 41.53 RMB [1] Core Views - The industrial robot market is entering a new growth phase driven by labor market shifts and industrial upgrading in China [1] - Domestic brands have achieved a 45% market share in 2023, a historic high, due to advancements in core components and controller technology [1] - The industrial robot industry exhibits a "smile curve" in terms of profitability, with upstream core components (reducer, servo system, and controller) being the most profitable [1] - The company has expanded from SCARA robots to a comprehensive industrial automation platform, with a 6.5% market share in China's industrial robot market in 2023, ranking fourth [1] Industry Analysis Industrial Robot Market Growth - China's industrial robot market has grown tenfold from 27,000 units in 2012 to 282,000 units in 2022, driven by labor shortages and cost reductions in robot applications [1] - Domestic brands are accelerating import substitution and expanding into international markets such as Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia [1] - The global industrial robot market is expected to reach 622,000 units by 2024, with China accounting for over 50% of global shipments [21][22] Industrial Robot Supply Chain - The industrial robot supply chain is characterized by a "smile curve," with upstream core components (reducer, servo system, and controller) being the most profitable [1] - Domestic brands are improving their competitiveness by mastering key components, particularly robot controllers, which enhance cost control and technical value [1] - The reducer market in China is expected to recover in 2024, with a projected market size of 1.596 million units, driven by the growth of humanoid robots and other new concepts [40][41] Company Analysis Market Position - The company holds a 6.5% market share in China's industrial robot market in 2023, ranking fourth, and a 20.8% market share in the SCARA robot segment, ranking first [1] - The company's industrial robot business has grown significantly, with revenue reaching 800 million RMB in 2023, compared to FANUC's 18 billion RMB, indicating substantial growth potential [56] Product and Solution Offerings - The company offers a comprehensive product line, including robot systems, control cabinets, software, and accessories, catering to various industries such as 3C, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics [51] - The company provides integrated solutions combining PLC/HMI/CNC, servo systems, frequency conversion systems, industrial robots, precision machinery, and pneumatic systems, enhancing customer value [57] Future Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on the humanoid robot sector, developing core components such as lead screws, frameless torque motors, and force sensors [59] - The company's overseas expansion strategy aims to narrow the gap with international giants and enhance its global market position [56] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 36.7 billion RMB in 2024 to 54.7 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit increasing from 5.52 billion RMB to 8.13 billion RMB over the same period [1] - The company's EPS is expected to rise from 2.06 RMB in 2024 to 3.03 RMB in 2026, with a target PE ratio of 32x for 2024 [1]