YTCO(600066) 国盛证券·2024-08-15 00:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Yutong Bus (600066.SH) [3] Core Views - July sales were affected by delivery schedules, but domestic demand for buses is expected to rebound due to increased government subsidies [1][2] - The company achieved a bus sales volume of 3,355 units in July 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and a month-on-month decrease of 29% [1] - The new subsidy policy for replacing old buses is expected to significantly boost domestic demand in the second half of 2024, with an estimated elasticity of over 60% [2] Summary by Sections Sales and Production - In July 2024, Yutong Bus produced 2,600 buses, down 31% year-on-year and 39% month-on-month [1] - The sales figures for large, medium, and light buses were 1,993, 870, and 492 units respectively, with a year-on-year change of -4%, -27%, and +22% [1] Policy Impact - The Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance issued new subsidy guidelines for replacing old buses, providing an average subsidy of 60,000 yuan per bus, with 80,000 yuan for new energy buses and 42,000 yuan for battery replacements [1] - The deadline for subsidy applications is January 20, 2025, which is expected to accelerate the replacement of buses in the domestic market [1] Market Outlook - The report estimates that approximately 11.5 million old new energy buses are in operation, with a potential demand for 14,000 replacements if 30% are replaced within six months [2] - Yutong holds about 15% of the domestic bus market share and is expected to benefit from the recovery in domestic bus demand [2] Financial Projections - The forecasted net profits for Yutong Bus from 2024 to 2026 are 3.2 billion, 3.9 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15, 12, and 10 times [2][5]