双汇发展：Q2盈利持续承压，高分红价值凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 33.58 [1][2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q2 profitability has accelerated decline due to pressures in the meat products sector, despite improvements in the fresh and frozen products business driven by rising pork prices. The company continues its high dividend policy, with a proposed dividend of RMB 0.66 per share for H1 2024, reflecting a payout ratio of approximately 100% [5][8]. - The report anticipates a potential recovery in profitability for H2 2024, driven by expected increases in pork prices and improvements in sales volume and pricing for fresh and frozen products. The meat products business is expected to benefit from structural adjustments and cost control measures [5][8]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 277 billion for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.34%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 22.96 billion, down 19% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was RMB 134 billion, also down 9.78% year-on-year [6][7]. - The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is RMB 50.56 billion, RMB 53.56 billion, and RMB 56.66 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.46, RMB 1.55, and RMB 1.64 [5][6]. - The company's financial ratios indicate a return on equity (ROE) of 23.89% for 2023, with a projected PE ratio of 16.14 for 2024 [4][14]. Business Performance - The report notes that the fresh and frozen products business saw a significant improvement in profitability in Q2 due to rising pork prices, while the meat products business faced challenges from weak market demand and increased costs [6][7]. - The company has maintained a high dividend policy, which is expected to continue, and anticipates that profitability will improve in H2 2024 due to favorable market conditions [5][8].