ZHIFEI-BIOL(300122) 高盛·2024-08-15 02:28Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhifei Biological (300122.SZ) is Neutral [2][4][16]. Core Views - Zhifei Biological is a major player in the Chinese vaccine market, with core products including the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine (in collaboration with Merck), shingles vaccine (in collaboration with GSK), and self-developed vaccines and tuberculosis products. The company is expected to launch several products in the next three years, which should support revenue growth. However, the quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine may face a decline starting in 2025 due to the latest agreement with Merck [2][4]. - The report highlights key events to watch: the launch of the human diploid cell rabies vaccine, the 15-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, and the quadrivalent influenza vaccine, as well as new product licensing from multinational companies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report assigns a Neutral rating to Zhifei Biological, indicating that the current valuation is reasonable compared to the historical average pre-COVID-19 [2][4]. Financial Projections - The 12-month price target for Zhifei Biological is set at RMB 52, based on a two-stage discounted cash flow valuation method, with a discount rate of 9% and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [3][4]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 52.92 billion for 2023, RMB 55.59 billion for 2024, RMB 51.37 billion for 2025, and RMB 50.44 billion for 2026 [4]. Key Products and Developments - The report notes that the RSV vaccine developed by GSK has entered Phase III clinical trials in China, with an expected completion date for the primary endpoint follow-up in March 2025. If successful, it may receive approval from the National Medical Products Administration in the first half of 2026 [1]. - The quadrivalent/nine-valent HPV vaccine is expected to face a decline starting in 2025, which is a significant concern for the company's revenue [2][4].