老板电器：数据更新：微调预测

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a 12-month target price of RMB 26, down from RMB 27, based on a 14x exit P/E multiple applied to the expected EPS for 2026 [1][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain industry-leading performance due to its strong brand, extensive distribution network, and comprehensive product/brand portfolio, despite a slight downward adjustment in EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 by 3-5% due to weak consumer demand [1][6][7]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end kitchen appliance market in China, expanding into rapidly growing categories such as dishwashers and integrated cooking appliances, with projected revenue and net profit growth in the high single to double digits from 2022 to 2026 [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024E are RMB 11,386 million, with a year-over-year growth of 1.6%. The 2025E revenue is projected at RMB 11,998 million, reflecting a growth of 5.4%, and 2026E at RMB 12,653 million, with a growth of 5.5% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to be 50.6% in 2024E, slightly decreasing from previous years, while the net income for 2024E is projected at RMB 1,790 million, with a year-over-year growth of 3.3% [3][5]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be RMB 1.89 for 2024E, with a growth of 3.3% from the previous year, and is expected to reach RMB 2.15 by 2026E [3][5]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has a dominant position in the high-end range hood and gas hob markets, with stable growth in core products. The focus on independent product development since 2019 has allowed the company to expand its market share in structural growth categories, particularly in dishwashers [6][7]. - Potential short-term catalysts for growth include the successful launch of new products in emerging categories and a rebound in real estate market demand [7][8].