Shijiazhuang Shangtai Technology (SZ:001301) Soochow Securities·2024-08-15 07:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of 360 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12% [2] - The company expects a 40% increase in shipments for the year 2024, with Q2 shipments showing a 40% quarter-on-quarter increase [2] - The company maintains a strong cost advantage in the negative electrode sector, projecting a target price of 54 yuan based on a 20x PE for 2024 [2] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue (in million yuan) for 2022A was 4,782, 2023A was 4,391, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 5,174, 6,582, and 8,326 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.84%, 27.22%, and 26.49% [1][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan) for 2022A was 1,289.46, 2023A was 722.91, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 702.65, 937.29, and 1,271.89 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -2.80%, 33.39%, and 35.70% [1][8] - The latest diluted EPS (in yuan/share) for 2022A was 4.94, 2023A was 2.77, and projections for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2.69, 3.59, and 4.87 respectively [1][8] Cost and Profitability - The company reported a gross margin of 25.56% in H1 2024, a decrease of 4.69 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 17.04%, down 3.54 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The unit profit for Q2 2024 is estimated at approximately 3,500 yuan/ton, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of nearly 20% due to price reductions [2] - The company has effectively controlled expenses, with total expenses in H1 2024 at 120 million yuan, a decrease of 2% [2] Cash Flow and Valuation - The operating cash flow for 2024E is projected to be 578 million yuan, with a significant increase from -416 million yuan in 2023A [9] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a total asset value projected to reach 10,340 million yuan by 2024E [8] - The company is valued at a P/E ratio of 14 for 2024E, 10 for 2025E, and 8 for 2026E, with a target price based on a 20x P/E for 2024 [2][9]