JUNEYAOAIR(603885) 信达证券·2024-08-15 07:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Juneyao Airlines (603885 SH) [1] Core Views - Juneyao Airlines achieved significant operational improvements and financial recovery in H1 2024 with revenue reaching 10 96 billion yuan up 17 4% YoY and net profit attributable to shareholders surging 508 9% YoY to 489 million yuan [1] - International routes contributed significantly to revenue growth with international route revenue increasing by 100% YoY to 2 16 billion yuan [1] - The company's gross margin improved to 15 70% up 2 11 percentage points YoY and 1 29 percentage points compared to 2019 levels [1] - Domestic route load factor exceeded 2019 levels while international and regional route load factors showed significant narrowing of the gap compared to 2019 [1] - Aircraft utilization reached 11 47 hours per day surpassing the 2019 level of 11 2 hours [1] Financial Performance - Revenue breakdown by region in H1 2024 Domestic 8 66 billion yuan (+6 5% YoY) International 2 16 billion yuan (+100% YoY) Regional 140 million yuan (+11 5% YoY) [1] - Unit revenue per RPK decreased by 7 1% YoY to 0 472 yuan while unit cost per ASK decreased by 5 0% YoY to 0 336 yuan [1] - Load factor reached 84 5% up 3 82 percentage points YoY and only 0 87 percentage points below 2019 levels [1] Future Projections - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders of 1 408 billion yuan in 2024 2 076 billion yuan in 2025 and 2 585 billion yuan in 2026 representing YoY growth rates of 87 4% 47 4% and 24 5% respectively [2] - EPS is projected to be 0 64 yuan in 2024 0 94 yuan in 2025 and 1 17 yuan in 2026 [2] - The current PE ratio is 17 61x for 2024 11 95x for 2025 and 9 59x for 2026 [2] Industry Context - Juneyao Airlines is positioned as a leading private airline with a dual brand strategy and strong operational advantages [2] - The company's performance is expected to further improve against the backdrop of industry recovery [2]