一拖股份：深度报告：持续升级的大型拖拉机龙头

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for YTO Group Corporation (601038.SH) as it is covered for the first time [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report addresses the characteristics of the Chinese agricultural machinery industry and its potential for long-term growth, as well as the short-term driving factors for YTO Group's growth momentum and competitive advantages [5]. - YTO Group is a leading manufacturer of medium and large tractors, focusing on agricultural machinery, power machinery, and related components, with a strong market presence in China and exports to over 140 countries [5][12]. - The agricultural machinery market is valued at $162 billion globally, with China's market expected to reach 585.7 billion yuan in 2023, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2017 to 2023 [5][35]. - The company has seen a significant increase in market share, from 13% in 2020 to 19% in 2022, as smaller competitors exit the market [5][6]. Company Overview - YTO Group is a leading player in the medium and large tractor segment, with a focus on research, manufacturing, and sales of agricultural machinery and power machinery [5][12]. - The company has a rich history, having been established in 1955, and has undergone several phases of development, including expansion, overseas acquisitions, and a focus on core business [5][16]. - The controlling shareholder is China National Machinery Group Corporation, and the management team consists largely of engineers [5][19][21]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with a CAGR of 62.1% in cash dividends from 2020 to 2023 [5][24]. Agricultural Machinery Industry - The agricultural machinery sector is characterized by increasing mechanization, with tractors being the primary agricultural power machinery [5][27]. - The global agricultural machinery market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.7% from 2022 to 2026, driven by the mechanization of agriculture in regions like Asia-Pacific [32]. - In China, the agricultural machinery market is expected to grow to 610 billion yuan in 2024, with a stable increase in total agricultural machinery power [35][36]. - Key driving factors include a reduction in agricultural labor, land transfer policies, and government subsidies for machinery purchases [5][6][27]. Financial Analysis - YTO Group has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a revenue CAGR of 18.6% from 2019 to 2023 [8]. - The company has improved its operating efficiency, with a negative net operating cycle and strong cash flow conversion capabilities [8][9]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 128.39 billion yuan, 144.37 billion yuan, and 161.98 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.55 billion yuan, 13.35 billion yuan, and 15.33 billion yuan [9].