CBC(600132) 广发证券·2024-08-16 02:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Brewery (600132 SH) with a target price of 71 69 yuan per share [4] Core Views - Chongqing Brewery reported H1 2024 revenue of 8 86 billion yuan (+4 2% YoY) and net profit of 900 million yuan (+4 2% YoY) Q2 2024 revenue was 4 57 billion yuan (+1 5% YoY) with net profit of 450 million yuan (-6 0% YoY) [2] - Beer sales volume in Q2 2024 increased by 1 5% YoY to 917 thousand kiloliters while revenue per ton remained flat at 4981 6 yuan/kiloliter [2] - Premium product revenue declined by 1 9% YoY in Q2 2024 due to weak demand in the catering and high-end beer segments while mainstream and economy products grew by 5 1% and 10 7% respectively [2] - Cost per ton increased by 2 1% YoY in Q2 2024 to 2468 2 yuan/kiloliter driven by higher depreciation and aluminum costs Gross margin declined by 1 0 pct YoY to 50 5% [2] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio of around 100% over the past two years and is expected to continue with mid-term dividends [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from 15 37 billion yuan in 2024E to 16 34 billion yuan in 2026E representing a CAGR of 3 1% [3] - Net profit is expected to increase from 1 39 billion yuan in 2024E to 1 55 billion yuan in 2026E with a CAGR of 5 6% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 2 87 yuan in 2024E to 3 20 yuan in 2026E [3] - The company's PE ratio is estimated at 21x for 2024E declining to 19x by 2026E [3] Valuation - The report values Chongqing Brewery at 25x 2024E PE implying a target price of 71 69 yuan per share [2] - Current share price stands at 60 65 yuan representing a potential upside of 18 2% [4]