SHUANGHUI(SZ:000895) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-08-16 06:40Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a projected increase in stock price relative to the market index [2][7]. Core Views - The company, Shuanghui Development, experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, primarily due to decreased sales in packaged meat products and fresh pork, alongside low poultry prices. However, it continues its high dividend policy, proposing a cash dividend of 6.6 yuan per 10 shares, resulting in a payout ratio of 99.58% [5][6]. - The packaged meat segment faced market demand pressure, with sales revenue dropping by 9.64% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, while achieving a historical high in profit per ton due to effective cost control and product structure adjustments [5][6]. - The fresh products segment saw a significant profit decline, but there was a quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q2 2024, attributed to rising pork prices [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of 27.593 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.31%, and a net profit of 2.296 billion yuan, down 19.05%. The operating cash flow increased significantly by 916.92% to 3.578 billion yuan [5]. - For Q2 2024, revenue was 13.364 billion yuan, down 9.78%, with a net profit of 1.025 billion yuan, a decline of 24.02% [5]. Segment Analysis - Packaged Meat Products: Revenue was 12.373 billion yuan in H1 2024, down 9.64%, with a profit margin of 26.86%, up 3.95 percentage points year-on-year. The profit per ton reached approximately 4,719 yuan, an increase of 17% [5]. - Fresh Products: Revenue was 13.325 billion yuan, down 16.14%, with a profit margin of 1.89%, down 0.94 percentage points. The profit per ton decreased by 34.5% to about 407 yuan [6]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 5.441 billion yuan, 6.045 billion yuan, and 5.926 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.57 yuan, 1.74 yuan, and 1.71 yuan [6][8].